Chance of Biden dropping out of presidental race is 40%, Stifel says


40% chance President Biden drops out of the race, Stifel estimates

There’s a 40% chance President Joe Biden will not seek reelection, according to Stifel.

Brian Gardner, the firm’s chief Washington policy strategist, is out with a research note that calls it a “make or break week” for the president’s campaign as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess.

“There’s a 60% chance, more likely than not, that he’s going to stay in,” Gardner told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “Biden loves to prove the smart kids in the Democratic Party wrong. So, the more he hears voices from the elites that he needs to get out, the more he digs in his heels.”

Gardner, who advises equity analysts on how White House policy could affect their coverage areas, thinks Democrats who are urging Biden to drop out face a considerable obstacle.

“They lack leverage. They can try to persuade Mr. Biden to drop out of the race, but they cannot force him out,” Gardner told clients on Monday. “It is a fantasy to think that at least half of Mr. Biden’s most dedicated supporters will turn on him and not vote to nominate him.”

While concerns about the president’s age have persisted throughout his latest bid for the Oval Office, a poor debate performance in June has changed the tenor of the conversation. Polling data and financial markets are starting to reflect a shift in sentiment that favors former President Donald Trump.

If Biden stays in the race, however, Gardner contends the Democratic Party may still see a favorable outcome.

“There’s a certain level of voter that is just never going to vote for Donald Trump no matter what,” Gardner said.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO



View Original Source Here

You May Also Like
Fed’s Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates

Fed’s Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates

Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during the Stanford Business, Government…

Ford’s stock tops $20 a share for first time in more than 20 years

Ford CEO Jim Farley speaks with reporters outside the company’s world headquarters…

Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav embraces the past as he plans his company’s future

In this article WBD David Zaslav, President and CEO of Warner Bros.…

American Airlines pilots get triple pay for trips dropped in scheduling glitch

An American Airlines Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner approaches for a landing at the…