One year on, how’s Keir Starmer’s government going? We’ve put together an end-of-term report with the help of pollster YouGov.
First, here are the government’s approval ratings – drifting downwards.
It didn’t start particularly high. There has never been a honeymoon.
But here is the big change. Last year’s Labour voters now disapprove of their own government. That wasn’t true at the start – but is now.
And remember, it’s easier to keep your existing voter coalition together than to get new ones from elsewhere.
So we have looked at where voters who backed Labour last year have gone now.
YouGov’s last mega poll shows half of Labour voters last year – 51% – say they would vote for them again if an election was held tomorrow.
Around one in five (19%) say they don’t know who they’d vote for – or wouldn’t vote.
But Labour are also leaking votes to the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform.
These are the main reasons why.
A sense that Labour haven’t delivered on their promises is top – just above the cost of living. Some 22% say they’ve been too right-wing, with a similar number saying Labour have “made no difference”. Immigration and public services are also up there.
Now, YouGov asked people whether they think the cabinet is doing a good or a bad job, and combined the two figures together to get a net score.
John Healey and Bridget Phillipson are on top, but the big beats of Angela Rayner, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves bottom.
But it’s not over for Labour.
Here’s one scenario – 2024 Labour voters say they would much prefer a Labour-led government over a Conservative one.
But what about a Reform UK-led government? Well, Labour polls even better against them – just 11% of people who voted Labour in 2024 want to see them enter Number 10.
Signs of hope for Keir Starmer. But as Labour MPs head off for their summer holidays, few of their voters would give this government an A*.
