Conservative leadership hopefuls head to conference that could define course of UK history

And they’re off! The banners are up, and the stage is set for a Conservative Party conference that could define the course of British history.

Will the next Tory leader rebuild the party from a historic low? Could we be witnessing the coronation of the next Conservative prime minister?

The excitement surely must be palpable?

“God, no,” a former Tory MP, who lost their seat in July, tells me when I ask if they will be attending. “I’ve got better things to do now than watch that lot”.

The mood among many Conservatives I’ve spoken to, and notably business people (who for the most part are not going), is lacklustre.

One former Tory minister tells me they feel “obliged” to go “to make the case for sensible conservatism” and “bring the party back from the brink”.

Others are more upbeat: “I’m an optimist,” one Tory MP tells me. “We can already see Labour making mistakes and I’m optimistic we will find a leader who can win the next election.”

What’s clear is that all four candidates are taking Wednesday’s stump speeches very seriously.

Kemi Badenoch was the one-time favourite with the bookies but is now trailing behind Robert Jenrick. Her team tell me “nothing is for granted”.

Her allies say she is a more natural speaker and her style will be more authentic and “less rehearsed”.

I’m told Tom Tugendhat has been testing sections of his speech on his young children, who have not quite shown the level of interest he hopes to ignite in the conference hall.

Mr Tugendhat has been practising “on trains, in cars, before events and late at night”, while Mr Jenrick has been hauled up in a secret country hideout rehearsing his lines with a small number of aides.

Team Jenrick say they have been up past midnight all week, surviving on takeaways.

“He must be sick of me by now,” one aide tells me. His team are keen to stress that they want the conference to be more than just a “vibes contest”.

The prospect of a “David Cameron moment” is being talked up, when the former prime minister surprised the 2005 conference with his casual, youthful, no-notes speech which saw him race ahead of frontrunner David Davis.

The former home secretary James Cleverly has already hosted a “Bevs with Clevs” evening for his backers here. His team say he is “in his element” and conference is a “home fixture”.

Mr Jenrick may be the favourite, but this contest is still open and there is a path for any of the four candidates to become the final two.

We saw the difference a few votes can make when Liz Truss narrowly beat Penny Mordaunt in the final MPs ballot in 2022, or the one vote between Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Portillo in 2001 that knocked the frontrunner out of the race.

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With just 121 Conservatives left to play with: nothing is for sure yet.

What is also clear is that not everyone is happy with how the race has played out behind the scenes.

There are plenty of, now well documented, accusations of “dubious” hostile briefings between rival camps. As one insider tells me: “There is always a bit of spice around the edges.”

Whatever the dynamics behind the scenes, what happens in Birmingham will decide the direction the Conservative Party takes, and will therefore inevitably have a profound impact on British politics.

All four Conservative leadership hopefuls: Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Robert Jenrick will be on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips on Sky News from 8.30am this morning.

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