James Cleverly has momentum after latest voting in Tory leadership contest - but final result far from clear

There’s no doubt who has momentum in the Tory leadership contest now.

James Cleverly pole-vaulted his rivals to first place – reaping the benefits of a well-thought-through, warm conference speech designed to make the party feel good about itself.

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A pitch from the Tory centre that so far appears to be appealing to all sides. Hopes in rival camps that the conference counted for little have not borne out.

But this does not by itself guarantee victory and beyond that, still nothing is certain.

One more knockout round tomorrow before the 170,000 or so members get their say, what clues are there in the results and the briefings about what happens next?

Today told us three things, as the remaining teams battle it out tonight to ensure their candidate makes it to the final two.

What did we learn:

• Kemi Badenoch is explicitly pitching to the Tory right, suggesting she is making little effort to appeal to the bulk of Tom Tugendhat’s supporters who are mostly – though not exclusively – one-nation Conservatives. Tonight in a statement she demands “the right of the Conservative Party now needs to coalesce around Kemi” – this suggests she is still trying to nibble away at Robert Jenrick backers, even though she fell behind Jenrick today. This is a particularly bold strategy given some of the ERG (European Research Group) fell out with Ms Badenoch when Rishi Sunak was prime minister.

• Robert Jenrick is losing momentum. Rival camps are capitalising on a drop in support for Mr Jenrick, from 33 MP votes in the last round to 31 votes today. However, I was told by Jenrick supporters that he would get 35-40 votes today, suggesting that he has seriously underperformed expectations. It appears the conference has done him some damage – his speech appeared less well-received than others – costing him the top spot among MPs.

• Is James Cleverly so far out in front he dares to try and engineer Jenrick as his opponent in the final round? In the YouGov poll of Tory members taken before the conference speeches, Mr Jenrick was only four points ahead of Mr Cleverly, while Ms Badenoch was further in front. Given the margins between second and third place are so small, could he “lend” some votes to get an easier opponent over the line?

YouGov polling revealed that among the general public, Tory MPs today ejected the most popular of the contenders for the crown – Mr Tugendhat, with Mr Cleverly and Mr Jenrick tied and Ms Badenoch the least popular.

But what do the all-important Tory members actually care about?

YouGov’s AI Topic Quantifier got Tory members to say what qualities they wanted in a leader.

Top of the list was the members’ desire for “integrity and honesty”, and second is “conservative values”. Only a tiny fraction – 2% – wanted “winning the election.”

This underlines why it remains far from clear what the outcome will be, wherever momentum may be tonight.

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