Concerns regarding asteroid 2024 YR4 have diminished, as NASA has revised the probability of its impact on Earth in 2032 from 1 in 32 to 1 in 360. The asteroid, which has an estimated diameter of 55 meters, was initially considered the most hazardous object on NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Risk Table. New observational data gathered between February 18 and February 20 led to a reassessment, significantly lowering the projected threat level. According to NASA, the asteroid now holds a 99.72 percent chance of missing Earth entirely.
Orbital Data Leads to Reassessment
According to information provided by NASA, the latest findings were based on additional telescope observations, refining previous predictions. The data confirmed that the asteroid’s trajectory has been better understood, resulting in its classification at Level 1 on the Torino Scale, a system used to gauge the risk posed by near-Earth objects. Richard Binzel, the creator of the Torino Scale, told Space.com that further observations are expected to move 2024 YR4 to Level 0, indicating no cause for concern.
Comparisons with Other Asteroids
Despite the significant drop in risk, asteroid 2024 YR4 remains at the top of the Sentry Risk Table. The next most concerning object is 1950 DA, with a 0.039 percent chance of impacting Earth in the year 2880. Experts have emphasized that continued monitoring will provide further clarity on the asteroid’s path as it makes another approach in 2028.
Scientific Observations and Future Monitoring
David Rankin, an astronomer from the Catalina Sky Survey, explained that minor variations in measurement precision can cause large shifts in projected trajectories. Speaking to Space.com, he noted that uncertainties in an asteroid’s position are similar to moving a long stick slightly at one end, causing dramatic shifts at the other. Rankin reassured that further data collection would likely continue to reduce any remaining impact probability.
NASA has also noted a minor possibility that 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon, but the likelihood remains low. As the asteroid moves away from Earth, it will not be visible again to ground-based telescopes until 2028, when additional observations will refine its projected path. Scientists remain confident that its most probable outcome is to continue its orbit around the Sun without incident.
