For the entirety of its run, the John Wick franchise has managed to achieve box-office greatness. The first film, released in 2014, was the lowest-grossing of the bunch, but it performed well against its modest budget, and it became even more successful when it became available for home viewing. Across its four films, the franchise has cleared $1 billion worldwide, making it a truly lucrative property for Lionsgate.
However, the biggest test of its viability is the release of Ballerina, the first theatrical expansion of the franchise. The spinoff will prove if stories “From the World of John Wick” can be successful at the box office. Ballerina is getting an assist from Keanu Reeves, who appears in the film in some capacity, but this is Ana de Armas‘ show, and it will truly determine if spinoffs not led by Reeves’ John Wick have a shelf life with moviegoers.
Directed by Len Wiseman from a screenplay by Shay Hatten, Ballerina serves as a spinoff of the John Wick franchise and takes place between the events of John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum and John Wick: Chapter 4. The film focuses on Eve Macarro (de Armas), a ballerina assassin who trains in the art of Ruska Roma to exact revenge for her father’s death. In addition to de Armas and Reeves, the film also stars Gabriel Byrne, Catalina Sandino Moreno, Norman Reedus, Anjelica Huston, Lance Reddick, and Ian McShane.
The Success or Failure of ‘Ballerina’ Will Determine the Future of the Franchise
Do Moviegoers Want More ‘John Wick’ Spinoffs?
The most important function of Ballerina for the John Wick IP is theatrical franchise expansion. Lionsgate aims to expand the universe beyond the main John Wick entries, and Ballerina is the first test to see if audiences are on board. The studio has wisely maintained the look and feel of the John Wick films in Ballerina, and having franchise mainstay Chad Stahelski on board as a producer helped solidify a seamless visual palette that makes it clear to fans that this spinoff exists in the same universe as its parent IP. All the marketing has maintained the John Wick aesthetic, from the look of the trailers to the key art, Lionsgate wants it to be abundantly clear that this film is John Wick adjacent.
The pressure was clearly on Lionsgate to make this film a winner, and they made sure to do whatever they could to ensure its potential success. There were some signs of concern when it was announced back in February 2024 that Stahelski had stepped in to film additional action scenes with Wiseman, while other reports surfaced that the producer personally oversaw two to three months of reshoots without Wiseman present. This is usually a big red flag that there are problems with the film, and some of that chatter did find its way onto social media, especially when the film was delayed a full year from its original release date of June 7, 2024.
To the credit of Lionsgate, the studio did a good job of refuting the claims that the powers-that-be weren’t happy with some of Wiseman’s cut because it lacked significant action. Stahelski doesn’t just serve as the film’s producer; Lionsgate has tasked him to oversee the entire John Wick brand. As a result, they were able to change the public’s perception of why he helped out with the reshoots. It should come as no surprise that most films of this scope require reshoots, making it a normal part of the filmmaking process.
Related
The world of John Wick expands with ‘Ballerina,’ and you can get a new look every day this week ahead of the action movie’s release.
In addition to this, since Stahelski is responsible for the John Wick brand, his involvement in filming additional scenes was intended to enhance some of the action sequences, making them more in line with what fans expect from the franchise. This clarified any doubts that Wiseman’s work was inadequate, making the delay seem more necessary rather than a sign of a disaster waiting to happen.
That being said, Lionsgate made one blunder ahead of the film’s release, which was highlighted on social media and gave the impression that the film might be in trouble. When Ballerina began its press screenings, many recipients of the invitations shared a snippet of the email they received, which seemed to encourage only positive feedback on social media platforms. Part of the email read, “We encourage spoiler-free enthusiasm across social media starting May 22 at 1:00 PM PST.” The email seemed to suggest that Lionsgate was worried about its quality and didn’t want bad word to get out, which would dull its box office.
As it turns out, Lionsgate didn’t have much to worry about, based on early social media reactions, because they have been pretty positive. Once word began to spread on social media that Ballerina appeared to be in good shape, the press screening email was soon viewed as a questionable decision by the studio and nothing more. They were able to dodge another potential bullet that could’ve hurt the film’s box office, which is vital to them. Despite the announcement of John Wick 5, Reeves likely won’t be involved in a long-term capacity as the franchise expands, so the spinoffs must perform well so they can develop their own sequels and, quite possibly, their own potential spinoffs to keep the IP moving for years to come.
Opening Weekend Tracking Is Good, But Will ‘Ballerina’ Have Legs?
Box office tracking for Ballerina is relatively strong, with the film projected to have a potential opening weekend of $35-40 million. This isn’t bad at all for a movie that reportedly cost $80-90 million to make, but there are also reports that the additional reshoots added $90 million to the film’s production costs. In terms of franchise openings, should Ballerina stick to its tracking, it would be well above the opening of the first film ($14.4 million) and John Wick: Chapter 2 ($30.4 million). The third film solidified the franchise as a true opening weekend force with a debut of $56.6 million, while Chapter 4 had a franchise-best opening of $73.8 million. Following Ballerina’s opening weekend, it will be all about legs in what’s shaping up to be a crowded summer movie marketplace. International figures will also help the franchise as it has certainly increased its overseas footprint since its debut.
Related
‘Ballerina’ Director Reveals Why It Is Not a ‘John Wick’ Spinoff or Sequel
Len Wiseman saw ‘Ballerina’s’ unique position in the John Wick timeline as an advantage to make a movie that expands the world of assassins.
Should Ballerina excel or crash during its opening weekend, it will prompt Lionsgate to closely examine its other John Wick spinoff, which will feature Donnie Yen’s blind assassin, Caine, leading his own film. If Ballerina is a clear winner, the studio will likely put even more love into the Yen-directed spinoff, but should Ballerina come up short, they may have a tight grip on the film’s purse strings and creative development to make sure the film is a success.
Working in favor of the franchise is that it has a great deal of goodwill among fans. Save The Continental spinoff miniseries that streamed on Peacock and seemed to come and go without much fanfare, the John Wick franchise has been wonderfully consistent. It’s a smart move that Reeves is featured heavily in the promos, and it appears that his involvement may be more than just a glorified cameo. That being said, for this world to grow, it will need to be without constant assistance from Reeves, and Ballerina will test this theory in a big way this weekend. Ballerina is in theaters on June 6, 2025.
