Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026 in Nakhabino outside of Moscow, Russia. Russian cities are experiencing a shortage of automobile fuel caused by numerous Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries.
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Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian fuel tankers in the Sea of Azov, seeking to disrupt supplies to occupied Crimea at a time when drone strikes have triggered nationwide gasoline shortages.
Ukraine’s drone force commander Robert Brovdi, known as Magyar, said via Telegram that 14 Russian ships were hit in the Sea of Azov on Thursday evening, taking the number of Russian stuck by Ukrainian drones to 35 over the last 96 hours. CNBC could not independently verify this report.
The drone strikes form part of Ukraine’s campaign designed to choke off supplies and transportation routes in and out of Crimea, which Russia seized by force in 2014.
Situated off the southern shores of both Ukraine and Russia, the Sea of Azov is a shallow inland sea that sits to the northeast of the Crimean peninsula.
Defense experts and strategists have described Ukraine’s drone attacks as pivotal in helping to stall Russia’s military momentum, while also warning that Kyiv’s deep-strike successes have drastically raised the risk of escalation.
“The Ukrainians have successfully brought the war into the mindset and the reality of Russian life,” Beat Wittmann, chairman and partner at Porta Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
“The reaction can be escalate or back down and negotiate, and historically the action, of course, in such situations is escalation. So, I would except that they escalate from [an] increasingly difficult situation and that will happen within the next few months,” Wittmann said.
Ukraine has frequently targeted high-profile oil refineries in major cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg in recent weeks as part of a sustained push to cut off Russia’s energy revenues.
Earlier this week, Ukraine marked what appeared to be one of the country’s deepest attacks on Russian territory in the war so far.
Plumes of black smoke were seen billowing from a key oil refinery in the city of Omsk on Tuesday, prompting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to declare that the country’s upgraded drone capabilities have put Siberia “within reach.”
The Omsk facility is situated nearly 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles) from Ukrainian territory and close to Russia’s border with Kazakhstan.
Russia’s economic situation
Long queues have been seen at Russian petrol stations as the country grapples with a worsening fuel crisis. Indeed, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently acknowledged the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian fuel production for the first time.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said the “costs of war are mounting” for the Kremlin.
Russian gross domestic product (GDP) growth stalled in the first quarter, according to official data, following a sharp slowdown last year and a temporary boost from surging military spending in 2024 and 2023.
“While the private sector seems to be contracting due to labour shortages, a scarcity of some materials and high interest rates, the military sector continues to thrive,” Schmieding said in a research note published Friday.
“Unless the Strait of Hormuz is closed again for a sustained period of time, sending energy prices and Russian export proceeds skywards, Russia’s economic and fiscal situation will likely worsen significantly further,” he added.
Russia remains open to diplomatic talks with Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday, accusing Ukraine of lacking the willingness to move toward a peaceful settlement.
A man refuels a car at a Gazpromneft petrol station in Moscow on June 24, 2026.
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“Russia remains open to achieving its goals through peaceful political and diplomatic negotiations, and President Putin remains open,” Peskov said, according to Russian state news agency Ria Novosti.
“But in circumstances where this is impossible, due to the Kyiv regime’s lack of willingness, we are continuing the special military operation,” he added, per a translation.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy penned an open letter to Russia’s Putin last month, proposing talks and saying Kyiv is ready for a full ceasefire for the duration of the negotiations. Putin responded by saying he saw no point in an in-person meeting with Zelenskyy for now.
