Brazil presidential election heads to runoff after Bolsonaro and Lula fail to win majority vote

Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, an ally of President Trump, and Brazil’s veteran President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face off in a runoff on Oct. 25 for the top job of Latin America’s powerhouse economy.

The country’s electoral court in Brasilia said neither the 80-year-old incumbent, seeking his fourth non-consecutive term, nor the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro would garner the more than 50% of the total vote needed for an outright win.

Brazil’s electoral court in Brasilia had Bolsonaro with just over 56 million votes to Lula’s 53.7 million, with 99.8% of the vote reported.

Bolsonaro addressed the press and a small group of supporters, including some wearing green and yellow Brazil jerseys and one woman wrapped in the Israeli flag, outside his Brasilia house. 

“Brazil wants change, that’s the reading of what happened today,” Bolsonaro said. “It’s the end of the Workers’ Party era,” he added, in a reference to Lula’s party.

Lula, seeking to be encouraging ahead of an uphill battle to beat Bolsonaro in the runoff, said the result was “unexpected” as he had thought he could win in the first round. 

“Tomorrow we start a new campaign,” Lula said. “I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan.”

Trump allies have fared well in recent elections in Latin America, including in Argentina, Colombia, Honduras and Peru. Lula has accused the U.S. administration of trying to sway his country’s election to Bolsonaro by imposing tariffs, revoking the visa of the country’s ambassador to Washington, and imposing sanctions on government officials and one Supreme Court justice.

The Trump administration did not respond to a request for comment on whether it is seeking to interfere in the vote.

The next presidential term begins on Jan. 5, 2027. The winner will be in charge of Latin America’s biggest economy and a population of 214 million. A win for Bolsonaro would increase U.S. influence in Latin America. If Lula wins, Brazil will keep its distance from Washington and continue to deepen its relationship with China.

Lula faces a tough battle

Both Lula and Bolsonaro will have three weeks to reach moderate voters who did not support them in the first round. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, two candidates who found moderate support in Sunday’s election, have previously said they will not endorse either bidder in the runoff.

With another 21 days of campaign ahead, Lula is expected to try to capitalize on the popularity of his social policies and his rival’s many legal woes.

While the once widely popular Lula saw his approval ratings plummet during his third term, standing up to the U.S. gave him a boost. And he still enjoys a strong base of supporters who credit his social policies for improving millions of Brazilians’ lives.

But the incumbent faces a tough battle because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same justice who led the investigation into Bolsonaro.

Sen. Bolsonaro will likely lean into his messaging on affordability and link the president to corruption scandals.

He has promised to crack down on Brazilian criminal groups and insisted that Brazil needs to strike better deals with the Trump administration, including in the rare minerals economy, second only to China. Bolsonaro also has campaigned on releasing his father and bringing him back to politics.

“Brazil needs change. Brazil can’t stand so much suffering,” he told reporters at the Rio de Janeiro voting center, where he cast his vote Sunday.

Both candidates face image problems: Roughly half of Brazil’s population disapproves of the Bolsonaro family, and roughly half disapprove of Lula’s Workers Party, according to multiple polls.

Four years ago, Lula beat the then-incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by about 2.1 million votes.

Voters choose between incumbent or return to right

“I’m feeling calm but very sad with the result,” said Alvaro Senra, 65, a history professor and Lula supporter in Rio de Janeiro who watched the count with friends at a bar. “I think this is the result of conservatives working under the radar, including by neo-Pentecostal churches. But I think Lula can still win.”

Earlier in the day, Maria Ribeiro, a 50-year-old cellphone vendor from Brasilia, said she voted for Bolsonaro’s eldest son because she wants freedom to express her evangelical religion. She hopes he follows in his father’s footsteps.

“I voted for his father, and I don’t regret it,” she said.

The proximity to his father was what worried Lorena Zschaber, a 40-year-old photographer, who watched the results roll in at an LGBTQ+-friendly bar in downtown Rio de Janeiro. During his father’s presidency, “people felt more at ease to discriminate,” she said.

“I’m an LGBTQ+ woman, I can’t think of anything worse happening than Flávio Bolsonaro being elected,” she added.

Rosângela Resende da Rocha, a 69-year-old who was previously a stay-at-home mom, said she supported Lula’s social policies that help the “less fortunate” and how he stands up to Mr. Trump.

“That crazy guy wants to come in here to buy our country, so that our country will be like it is over there,” she said at a voting center in Brasilia. “He won’t succeed if Lula wins.”

Confidence in Brazil’s electronic voting system

No significant fraud has ever been detected since Brazil adopted its electronic voting system in the 1990s.

The Organization of American States’ electoral observation mission reported Sunday that “the voting has been going smoothly and under adequate safety conditions.” Electoral authorities have assured that electronic votes are secure and verifiable.

“We are almost three hours away from the end of the voting and everything is proceeding normally and with the greatest possible transparency,” the president of the Superior Electoral Court, Kassio Nunes Marques, said Sunday afternoon, adding that there was “no concrete indication of international interference.”

Voters appeared largely confident that the country’s voting system can’t be tampered with.

Josemar Lauriano Pereira, a 46-year-old lawyer in Rio de Janeiro, said that the rapid availability of results helped combat fraud and uncertainty.

“When results take a lot of time, it creates an opening for people to cast doubt on the results, to say there’s been a problem,” he said.